Political dynamics in the Middle East are experiencing very rapid and complex changes, reflecting a variety of factors, both domestic and international. In recent years, several crucial events have shaped the region’s political landscape. First, the Syrian conflict which has been going on for more than a decade continues to influence regional dynamics. With the involvement of multiple powers, including Russia, Iran, and the United States, this issue has created new allies and antagonisms. In this case, Iran is trying to expand its influence through support for the Bashar al-Assad regime, while the US and its allies are trying to challenge Iran’s dominance in the region. Second, relations between the Gulf countries and Israel are increasingly showing signs of normalization, despite existing tensions. The Abraham Accords, signed in 2020, marked a new era in diplomatic relations between Israel and countries such as the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain. This normalization has led many parties to encourage collaboration in facing similar challenges such as Iran and extremism. Furthermore, economic factors are also a major determinant in the political dynamics of the Middle East. The energy crisis, especially through oil price fluctuations, has a direct impact on the economies of oil-producing countries. Countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are seeking economic diversification with the Vision 2030 initiative. Tensions caused by social protests related to economic injustice also have the potential to trigger political change in these countries. People’s movements have become an important phenomenon. In Iran, demonstrations sparked by issues of civil liberties and women’s rights show public dissatisfaction with the government. Meanwhile, in Lebanon, the economic crisis and political turmoil are pushing people onto the streets, pushing for deeper reform. Additionally, the rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran appears to be intensifying, with a proxy conflict involving Yemen taking center stage. A ceasefire agreement signed in Yemen paves the way for potential peace, but tensions remain, especially over Iran’s nuclear program. In the global context, the interaction of great powers such as the United States and China towards the Middle East is undergoing transformation. The withdrawal of the US military from Afghanistan and China’s increasingly strong presence through the Belt and Road Initiative project are changing the diplomatic and economic approach in the region. Ultimately, the Palestinian issue remains a major focal point in Middle Eastern politics. Efforts to reach a peace agreement between Palestine and Israel continue to reach an impasse, while Israeli policies that are considered expansive, such as the construction of new settlements, often add to existing tensions. Given these dynamics, the future of politics in the Middle East remains uncertain, characterized by conflict, collaboration, and growing popular movements.
